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Statistics · Chapter 10

Significance and the Decision

A p-value is a measurement. A decision is a choice — and the choice depends entirely on the significance level you set before you look. Hold the data still, drag α, and watch one unchanged p-value reject the null at one setting and fail to reject it at the next.

If H₀ were true, this is where z would land

rejection region — total area = αp-value tails — total area = p

p against α on one number line

The shaded strip is every p-value small enough to reject at your current α. The blue marker is this sample's p, and it does not move when you drag α.
Set a significance levelthen read the decision

The evidence — 36 resting heart rates

A reference population averages 74 bpm with σ = 9. H₀: μ = 74  ·  H₁: μ ≠ 74 (two-tailed). Each dot below is one sampled patient.
The truth behind the curtain (you never see this in real life)

Drag your significance level

α = 0.050
p-value
—
alpha
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test z
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critical z*
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α is chosen first. Sliding it after you have seen p until the decision comes out the way you wanted is a real practice with a real name — and it destroys the guarantee the whole procedure rests on.

What α actually buys you

300 fresh samples were drawn from the world you selected. Below is how many of them your current α would reject.